I've long believed that most polling data, by itself, is useless. Polls can be manipulated through creative questioning to get the exact result you want. What I've cared more about is trending. I know that may seem like a bit of a contradiction, but looking at an amalgamation of all kinds of polls on the same races gives me a better picture than just one poll all on its own.
The latest trend? The GOP is trending upward before tomorrow's Mid-Term Elections.
Oh, it's not just me, friends. The Washington Post has noticed it, too.
A Pew Research Center poll showed a significant narrowing in the partisan advantage in House races that the Democrats have enjoyed for much of the year, findings that echoed those of a Washington Post-ABC News poll released Saturday showing the Democrats with a six-point edge.
The Pew poll showed that the Democratic advantage had dropped to 47 percent to Republicans' 43 percent among likely voters, down from 50 percent to 39 percent two weeks ago. The poll found a drop in Democratic support among independents, but Pew Director Andrew Kohut said the most significant change over the past two weeks is that Republicans now outnumber Democrats among likely voters.
So, again, the Pew Research Center poll is but one poll. It does support the data that has been published for weeks, though: that the GOP is gaining ground. For this to be happening right before the election is not exactly great news for the Democrats.
Is it any wonder that Rahm Emanuel is nervous?
It isn't over yet and the fat lady hasn't sung. A majority of polls for the last three elections, as well as the exit poll data, didn't match the outcome. Don't listen to the polls and the media.
This thing can still be won, but it's up to you.
William Smith
ConservativeBlogger.com
