Conservative Blogger: Prez '08: The Hawkeye Cauci...

Well, well, well...after over a year of speculation and debate, we're finally in a situation where somebody, somewhere is finally going to vote for someone!

The Iowa Caucuses--or, the Hawkeye Caucii, as The Great One refers to it--happens in just a couple of hours from now.

Here's the prediction I made earlier in the comments over on HotAir.com. Just about anyone making a prediction has roughly the same chance as I do at being right. I figure I might as well go all the way and attach some real values to the win, place, show and "ooh, sorry, but we have some lovely parting gifts for you backstage" spots in this race:

DEMS:
1. Obama 31%
2. Clinton 28%
3. Edwards 25%

GOP:
1. Romney 30%
2. Huckabee 28%
3. McCain 15%
4. “Fred!” 14%

Of note are Clinton, McCain and "Fred!"

A lot of people are thinking that Voldemort is going to fall as low as third but I'm not so sure right now. If she does fall to third, then it means she has to win New Hampshire. Period.

McCain and "Fred!" are almost interchangeable at third and fourth place. Where ever they land, I don't think it's going to be more than a point or two and, right now, I think McCain might fare a little better given the press that "Fred!" got today. (Thompson's campaign has come out and denied it and said it isn't true, but it's quite possible that it could cause people to caucus for someone else in Iowa.)

So, that's where I'm at for now. We'll see what happens when the results start coming in from Des Moines, sometime tonight...

William Smith
ConservativeBlogger.com

Posted by WilliamSmith on January 3, 2008 06:05 PM to Conservative Blogger